
Social science theories often postulate systems of causal relationships among variables, which are commonly represented using directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). As non-parametric causal models, DAGs require no assumptions about the functional form of the hypothesized relationships. Nevertheless, to simplify empirical evaluation, researchers typically invoke such assumptions anyway, even though they are often arbitrary and do not reflect any theoretical content or prior knowledge. Moreover, functional form assumptions can engender bias, whenever they fail to accurately capture the true complexity of the system. In this article, we introduce causal-graphical normalizing flows (cGNFs), a novel approach to causal inference that leverages deep neural networks to empirically evaluate theories represented as DAGs. Unlike conventional methods, cGNFs model the full joint distribution of the data using a DAG specified by the analyst, without relying on stringent assumptions about functional form. This enables flexible, non-parametric estimation of any causal estimand identified from the DAG, including total effects, direct and indirect effects, and path-specific effects. We illustrate the method with a reanalysis of Blau and Duncan’s ( 1967 ) model of status attainment and Zhou’s ( 2019 ) model of controlled mobility. The article concludes with a discussion of current limitations and directions for future development.
FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Methodology, Econometrics (econ.EM), Machine Learning (stat.ML), Social and Behavioral Sciences, Machine Learning (cs.LG), Methodology (stat.ME), FOS: Economics and business, Sociology, Statistics - Machine Learning, Statistics - Methodology, Economics - Econometrics
FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Methodology, Econometrics (econ.EM), Machine Learning (stat.ML), Social and Behavioral Sciences, Machine Learning (cs.LG), Methodology (stat.ME), FOS: Economics and business, Sociology, Statistics - Machine Learning, Statistics - Methodology, Economics - Econometrics
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 1 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Average | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
