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Inflation and Fiscal Policy: Is There a Threshold Effect in the Fiscal Reaction Function?

Authors: Briodeau, Clémence; Checherita-Westphal, Cristina;

Inflation and Fiscal Policy: Is There a Threshold Effect in the Fiscal Reaction Function?

Abstract

Abstract The euro area, like other advanced economies, faced high inflation over the past years. We analyse empirically the impact of inflation on public finances in the euro area, focusing on the question of whether at such high levels, inflation could have a different impact on the primary budget balance. To this end, we estimate a fiscal reaction function for euro area countries and find evidence of non-linear short-term effects of HICP inflation on the primary balance. Over the period 1999–2022, we unveil an inverse U-turn relationship and an inflation turning point – beyond which its short-term (contemporaneous) impact on the primary balance starts being negative. These results reflect primarily the most recent high inflation episode and indicate that in such conditions inflation can be costly for public finance flows even in the shorter run.

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Keywords

ddc:330, fiscal reaction function, euro area, inflation, E62, H60, panel models, E31, C33

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
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