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Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2023
Data sources: EconStor
EconStor
Research . 2023
Data sources: EconStor
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Macroeconomic Expectations and State-Dependent Factor Returns

Authors: Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias;

Macroeconomic Expectations and State-Dependent Factor Returns

Abstract

We examine the asymmetric impact of shocks to macroeconomic expectations and their underlying dispersion on equity risk premia across different market regimes. First, we rely on a two-state logit mixture vector autoregressive model and use Consensus Economics survey data on GDP growth, inflation, and short-term interest rates to approximate macroeconomic expectations and the underlying disagreement in the United States for the period 1989M10-2022M09. We demonstrate that unexpected changes of survey forecasts and their dispersion significantly affect cyclical factor returns in a dynamic setting and that the state of the economy matters for the magnitude, persistence, and occasionally also for the sign of the effect. Second, by extending the dynamic asset pricing model of Adrian et al. (2015), we show that GDP forecasts and their dispersion are priced in the cross section and drive the size and value premium, whereas inflation expectations serve as robust predictors for the price of risk. We also document that the survey expectationsaugmented specification reduces pricing and premium errors when compared to a common benchmark of return predictors.

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Keywords

consensus forecasts, ddc:330, G14, dynamic asset pricing model, Macroeconomic Expectations, macroeconomic expectations, Consensus Forecasts, Factor Risk Premia, State-Dependency, Mixture VAR, Dynamic Asset Pricing Model, factor risk premia, E44, state-dependency, G12, mixture VAR, C32

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
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