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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2023
Data sources: EconStor
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Unobserved Components Model(s): Output Gaps and Financial Cycles

Authors: Guillochon, Justine; Le Roux, Julien;

Unobserved Components Model(s): Output Gaps and Financial Cycles

Abstract

The Global Financial Crisis established that policymakers should consider the stage of the financial cycle to better evaluate the cyclical position of the economy when designing monetary policy decisions. If financial variables are omitted from the estimations of the output gap, a common and unobserved indicator of the business cycle, important financial or external imbalances that may lead to future recessions may not be captured. This paper presents a suite of estimates of output gaps incorporating financial variables. The estimates are based both on small unobserved components models and a large unobserved components model that follows a production function approach. The results show that exploiting the information content of financial variables, which co-move strongly with the output cycle, can sometimes improve output gap estimates. However, these improvements are of a limited magnitude and very sensitive to the choice of the chosen financial variables.

Related Organizations
Keywords

financial cycle, ddc:330, monetary policy, Output gap, E44, potential output, E47, C32, E52, unobserved components model, E32

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
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