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“Whatever it Takes!” How Tonality of Tv-News Affects Government Bond Yield Spreads During Crises

Authors: Hirsch, Patrick; Köhler, Ekkehard A.; Feld, Lars P.; Thomas, Tobias;

“Whatever it Takes!” How Tonality of Tv-News Affects Government Bond Yield Spreads During Crises

Abstract

Are government bond risk premia affected by TV news in addition to the effect of the original event reported? We analyze 1,209,566 human-coded news items from newscasts aired by leading TV stations in Europe and the US between January 2007 and November 2016. We establish causality using instrumental variables that attract media attention and crowd out media coverage on Eurozone related news. We find FIFA and UEFA tournaments as well as major natural disasters and airplane crashes as valid instruments for the empirical analysis. The results show that an exogenous variation in the share of Eurozone related news affects bond spreads. A one percentage point increase in the share of Eurozone related news leads to -7.6 basis points lower bond spreads. Taking the tonality of the news into account paints a more differentiated picture: A one percent higher share of positive Eurozone related news leads to -69.7 basis points lower bond spreads, whereas a one percentage point higher share of negative country-specific news is related to 2.5 basis points higher bond spreads.

Keywords

Eurozone crisis, Media bias, ddc:330, GIIPS bond yield spreads, L82, E58, G12, TV Newscasts, Tonality

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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