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Inflation Expectations in CESEE: The Role of Sentiment and Experiences

Authors: Allinger, Katharina; Rumler, Fabio;

Inflation Expectations in CESEE: The Role of Sentiment and Experiences

Abstract

This paper focuses on the formation of inflation expectations of consumers in 9 Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries. Using data from the OeNB Euro Survey, a large cross-country consumer survey, we show that the difference between realized inflation and reported inflation expectations is considerably higher in CESEE countries than in 7 euro area countries. Moreover, we find that estimation results for the CESEE countries are in line with the existing literature on large Western economies: older, female and lower income respondents have relatively higher inflation expectations. Also, respondents with lower trust in institutions and a more pessimistic view regarding the economic outlook have substantially higher inflation expectations, as do those who were negatively financially affected by the COVID-19 pandemic or have experienced high inflation periods in the past. When interacting economic sentiment and experiences we find that differences in economic sentiment can partially explain the significant correlation between COVID-19 experiences and inflation expectations. Furthermore, respondents who remember high inflation in the past report a stronger effect of economic sentiment on inflation expectations than others.

Keywords

inflation expectations, ddc:330, household survey, economic sentiment, D84, CESEE, D12, E52, E31

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
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