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Journal of Econometrics
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
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Article . 2025
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Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2023
License: CC 0
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Time-Varying Vector Error-Correction Models: Estimation and Inference

Time-varying vector error-correction models: estimation and inference
Authors: Jiti Gao; Bin Peng; Yayi Yan;

Time-Varying Vector Error-Correction Models: Estimation and Inference

Abstract

This paper considers a time-varying vector error-correction model that allows for different time series behaviours (e.g., unit-root and locally stationary processes) to interact with each other to co-exist. From practical perspectives, this framework can be used to estimate shifts in the predictability of non-stationary variables, test whether economic theories hold periodically, etc. We first develop a time-varying Granger Representation Theorem, which facilitates the establishment of asymptotic properties for the model, and then propose estimation and inferential methods and theory for both short-run and long-run coefficients. We also propose an information criterion to estimate the lag length, a singular-value ratio test to determine the cointegration rank, and a hypothesis test to examine the parameter stability. To validate the theoretical findings, we conduct extensive simulations. Finally, we demonstrate the empirical relevance by applying the framework to investigate the rational expectations hypothesis of the U.S. term structure.

Keywords

FOS: Economics and business, cointegration, Gaussian approximations, iterated time-varying functions, present value model, Statistics, Game theory, economics, finance, and other social and behavioral sciences, Econometrics (econ.EM), Granger representation theorem, Economics - Econometrics

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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
Green
hybrid