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The Debt-to-GDP Ratio as a Tool for Debt Management: Not Good for LICs

Authors: Amegashie, J. Atsu;

The Debt-to-GDP Ratio as a Tool for Debt Management: Not Good for LICs

Abstract

There have been criticisms of debt sustainability analysis in general, including the IMF's own evaluation of the usefulness of its debt sustainability methodology (e.g., IMF, 2017). This paper's focus is narrow. On the basis of theoretical arguments and empirical evidence, it argues that the debt-to-GDP ratio is a poor metric for debt management in low-income countries (LICs). It makes a case for explicit revenue-based metrics of debt management. In LICs or countries with weak institutions, the debt-to-GDP may be manipulated by understating the stock of debt, resorting to dubious accounting methods, and there is a weak correlation between GDP and revenue as result of inefficiencies in the tax administration and a large informal sector. It is also arelatively inefficient predictor of debt distress. Other reasons are given in the paper.

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Keywords

debt-to-GDP ratio. debt service-to-revenue ratio, liquidity, ddc:330, H63, debt sustainability, solvency, E62

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
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