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The Three Co's to Jointly Model Commodity Markets:Co-Production, Co-Consumption, Co-Trading

Authors: Schischke, Amelie; Papenfuß, Patric; Rathgeber, Andreas;

The Three Co's to Jointly Model Commodity Markets:Co-Production, Co-Consumption, Co-Trading

Abstract

AbstractIn this study, we develop a framework, based on a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model, to unite two perspectives on commodity markets, the commodity-specific, single-market-centered approach, investigating the micro- and macroeconomic drivers of commodity prices, and the market perspective, which observes joint movements of commodity prices on exchanges. Thereby, the GVAR model disentangles single market from inter-market effects, while simultaneously accounting for the impact of macroeconomic factors. We apply the framework to the six industrial metals markets, reflecting their interdependencies via their co-production, co-consumption, or co-trading relation. In particular, the numerous significant spillover effects in the cross-commodity dimension underline the importance of jointly modeling commodity markets. While the strong co-movement between industrial metal prices is represented exceptionally well by our framework, the microeconomic supply and demand attributes of the commodities have significant impact, within and across markets, even on price variables, highlighting their relevance in modern commodity market models. Moreover, we detect global shocks, e.g., an increase in global demand, affect each commodity market to a similar extent.

Countries
Germany, Germany
Related Organizations
Keywords

Commodities, ddc:600, Q31, C51, Microeconomic factors, ddc:330, Co-movement, Metal markets, Global vector autoregressive model, C32, Q02

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
9
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
hybrid