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Motivated Belief Updating and Rationalization of Information

Authors: Christoph Drobner; Sebastian J. Goerg;

Motivated Belief Updating and Rationalization of Information

Abstract

We study belief updating about relative performance in an ego-relevant task. Manipulating the perceived ego relevance of the task, we show that subjects substantially overweight positive information relative to negative information because they derive direct utility from holding positive beliefs. This finding provides a behavioral explanation why and how overconfidence can evolve in the presence of objective information. Moreover, we document that subjects who receive more negative information downplay the ego relevance of the task. These findings suggest that subjects use two alternative strategies to protect their ego when presented with objective information. This paper was accepted by Marie Claire Villeval, behavioral economics and decision analysis. Funding: The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from the ExperimenTUM. Supplemental Material: The online appendices and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.02537 .

Keywords

Motivated beliefs, ddc:330, Optimistic belief updating, Ex-post rationalization, motivated beliefs, direct belief utility, D83, D84, Bayes' rule, C91, Direct belief utility, ex-post rationalization, overconfidence, optimistic belief updating

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
29
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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