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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
Management Science
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2022
License: CC BY NC SA
Data sources: Datacite
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E-backtesting

Authors: Qiuqi Wang; Ruodu Wang; Johanna Ziegel;
Abstract

In the recent Basel Accords, the Expected Shortfall (ES) replaces the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the standard risk measure for market risk in the banking sector, making it the most important risk measure in financial regulation. One of the most challenging tasks in risk modeling practice is to backtest ES forecasts provided by financial institutions. To design a model-free backtesting procedure for ES, we make use of the recently developed techniques of e-values and e-processes. Backtest e-statistics are introduced to formulate e-processes for risk measure forecasts, and unique forms of backtest e-statistics for VaR and ES are characterized using recent results on identification functions. For a given backtest e-statistic, a few criteria for optimally constructing the e-processes are studied. The proposed method can be naturally applied to many other risk measures and statistical quantities. We conduct extensive simulation studies and data analysis to illustrate the advantages of the model-free backtesting method, and compare it with the ones in the literature. This paper was accepted by Agostino Capponi, finance. Funding: R. Wang acknowledges financial support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada [Grants RGPIN-2024-03728 and CRC-2022-00141]. J. Ziegel acknowledges financial support from the Swiss National Science Foundation. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.01659 .

Keywords

Methodology (stat.ME), FOS: Economics and business, FOS: Computer and information sciences, Risk Management (q-fin.RM), FOS: Mathematics, Mathematics - Statistics Theory, Statistics Theory (math.ST), Statistics - Methodology, Quantitative Finance - Risk Management

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green