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International Journal of Forecasting
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Volatility Forecasting for Low-Volatility Investing

Authors: Christian Conrad; Onno Kleen; Rasmus Lönn;

Volatility Forecasting for Low-Volatility Investing

Abstract

Low-volatility investing often involves sorting and selecting stocks based on retrospective risk measures, for example, the historical standard deviation of returns. In this paper, we use the volatility forecasts from a wide spectrum of volatility models to sort and select stocks and estimate portfolio weights. Our portfolios are more closely aligned with the ex-post optimal portfolio and deliver large, significant economic gains compared to traditional benchmarks after transaction costs. Importantly, we find that choosing portfolio weights by optimally combining the volatility forecasts from the different models delivers the strongest forecast and financial performance in real-time.

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Netherlands
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Sector plan SSH-Breed

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
hybrid