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Journal of Development Economics
Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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On Track or Not? Projecting the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index

Authors: Alkire, S; Nogales, R; Quinn, NN; Suppa, N;

On Track or Not? Projecting the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index

Abstract

In this paper we compute projections of global multidimensional poverty. We use recently published estimates of changes over time in multidimensional poverty for 75 countries, which are based on time-consistent indicators. We consider and evaluate different approaches to model the trajectories of countries' achieved and future poverty reduction. Our preferred model respects theoretical bounds, is supported by empirical evidence, and ensures consistency of our main measure with its sub-indices. We apply this approach to examine whether countries will halve their poverty between 2015 and 2030 if observed trends continue. Our results suggest that if observed trends continue, 47 countries will have halved their poverty by 2030-irrespective of the underlying model. As the current COVID-19 pandemic may severely disrupt progress in poverty reduction, we also assess its potential impact using simulation techniques and evaluate the resulting setback. Our analyses suggest a setback to multidimensional poverty reduction of about 3-10 years.

Countries
Spain, United Kingdom
Keywords

Poverty dynamics, COVID-19, Multidimensional poverty, SDG, Projection

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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
19
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
hybrid