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Pure Utrecht University
Research . 2022
License: CC BY NC
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2022
Data sources: EconStor
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Relative Investor Sentiment Measurement

Authors: Gao, Xiang; Koedijk, Kees; Walther, Thomas; Wang, Zhan;

Relative Investor Sentiment Measurement

Abstract

This paper proposes a new metric to gauge investor sentiment using a relative valuation method. We combine investor behavioral finance traits and option-implied standard deviations under both the real-world probability (P) valued most in the view of uninformed investors and the risk-neutral space (Q) adopted when there exists no cognitive error. Given that investor sentiment can be thought of as risk-taking by the uninformed exceeding their informed peers, we postulate that the differences between the variance, skewness, and kurtosis of P and Q measures for investors with various behavioral traits matter. We hence construct our investor sentiment proxy by summing these differentials of variance, skewness, and kurtosis in weighted forms. It is documented that such relative investor sentiment metric exhibits economically and statistically strong return predictability for momentum portfolios. Our findings contribute to the extant literature by (1) complementing the Baker-Wurgler market-based investor sentiment index from the theoretical perspective, (2) modeling investor sentiment via utilizing the informational content of options prices, and (3) supporting the Barberis-Shleifer-Vishny definition of investor sentiment to be differences in financial market participant behavior.

Country
Netherlands
Related Organizations
Keywords

return predictability, ddc:330, sentiment, accumulators, emotional bias, preservers, momentum, bounded rationality, cognitive error

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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