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Financial Innovation
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
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Financial Innovation
Article . 2025
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Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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Estimation of the Probability of Informed Trading Models Via an Expectation-Conditional Maximization Algorithm

Authors: Montasser Ghachem; Oguz Ersan;

Estimation of the Probability of Informed Trading Models Via an Expectation-Conditional Maximization Algorithm

Abstract

Abstract The estimation of the probability of informed trading (PIN) model and its extensions poses significant challenges owing to various computational problems. To address these issues, we propose a novel estimation method called the expectation-conditional-maximization (ECM) algorithm, which can serve as an alternative to the existing methods for estimating PIN models. Our method provides optimal estimates for the original PIN model as well as two of its extensions: the multilayer PIN model and the adjusted PIN model, along with its restricted versions. Our results indicate that estimations using the ECM algorithm are generally faster, more accurate, and more memory-efficient than the standard methods used in the literature, making it a robust alternative. More importantly, the ECM algorithm is not limited to the models discussed and can be easily adapted to estimate future extensions of the PIN model.

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Keywords

Multilayer probability of informed trading, Adjusted PIN model, ECM, K4430-4675, PIN model, HG1-9999, MPIN, Public finance, Expectation conditional-maximization algorithm, Finance

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Top 10%
Average
Average
gold
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