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Creating Quantitative Scenario Projections for the UK Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Authors: Merkle, M.; Dellaccio, O.; Dunford, R.; Harmackova, Z.V.; Harrison, P.A.; Mercure, J-F.; Pedde, S.; +4 Authors

Creating Quantitative Scenario Projections for the UK Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Abstract

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were developed as a framework for exploring alternative futures with challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Whilst originally developed at the global scale, the SSPs have been increasingly interpreted at the national scale in order to inform national level climate change policy and impact assessments, including mitigation and adaptation actions. Here, we present a set of quantitative SSP scenario projections, based on narratives and semi-quantitative trends, for the UK (the UK-SSPs) for a wide range of sectors that are relevant to the UK climate research, policy and business communities. We show that a mixed-methods approach that combines computational modelling with an interpretation of stakeholder storylines and empirical data is an effective way of generating a comprehensive range of quantitative indicators across sectors and geographic areas in a specific national context. The global SSP assumptions of low challenges to climate adaptation lead to similar socioeconomic outcomes in UK-SSP1 and UK-SSP5, although based on very different dynamics and underlying drivers. Convergence was also identified in indicators related to more efficient natural resource use in the scenarios with low challenges to climate change mitigation (UK-SSP1 and UK-SSP4). Alternatively, societal inequality played a strong role in scenarios with high challenges to adaptation leading to convergence in indicator trends (UK-SSP3 and UK-SSP4).

Countries
Germany, Germany, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Czech Republic, United Kingdom
Keywords

info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, UK Socio-economics, 550, quantitative scenarios, ddc:550, 333, Stakeholderbased Modelling, stakeholder-based modelling, extended SSPs, Earth sciences, UK socio-economics, Extended SSPs, Meteorology. Climatology, Quantitative Scenarios, QC851-999, Stakeholder-based Modelling

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    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    15
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
15
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold