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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
The Journal of Computational Finance
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2021
License: CC 0
Data sources: Datacite
DBLP
Article . 2022
Data sources: DBLP
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Clustering Market Regimes Using the Wasserstein Distance

Authors: Blanka Horvath; Zacharia Issa; Aitor Muguruza Gonzalez;

Clustering Market Regimes Using the Wasserstein Distance

Abstract

The problem of rapid and automated detection of distinct market regimes is a topic of great interest to financial mathematicians and practitioners alike. In this paper, we outline an unsupervised learning algorithm for clustering financial time-series into a suitable number of temporal segments (market regimes). As a special case of the above, we develop a robust algorithm that automates the process of classifying market regimes. The method is robust in the sense that it does not depend on modelling assumptions of the underlying time series as our experiments with real datasets show. This method -- dubbed the Wasserstein $k$-means algorithm -- frames such a problem as one on the space of probability measures with finite $p^\text{th}$ moment, in terms of the $p$-Wasserstein distance between (empirical) distributions. We compare our WK-means approach with a more traditional clustering algorithms by studying the so-called maximum mean discrepancy scores between, and within clusters. In both cases it is shown that the WK-means algorithm vastly outperforms all considered competitor approaches. We demonstrate the performance of all approaches both in a controlled environment on synthetic data, and on real data.

37 pages, 40 figures

Related Organizations
Keywords

FOS: Economics and business, FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Quantitative Finance - Computational Finance, Quantitative Finance - Mathematical Finance, Computational Finance (q-fin.CP), 91-08 (Primary), 91G60 (Secondary), Mathematical Finance (q-fin.MF), Machine Learning (cs.LG)

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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
bronze