Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ SSRN Electronic Jour...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
Manufacturing & Service Operations Management
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2019
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
Data sources: Datacite
DBLP
Article . 2022
Data sources: DBLP
versions View all 5 versions
addClaim

Adaptive Sequential Experiments with Unknown Information Arrival Processes

Authors: Yonatan Gur; Ahmadreza Momeni;

Adaptive Sequential Experiments with Unknown Information Arrival Processes

Abstract

Problem definition: Sequential experiments that are deployed in a broad range of practices are characterized by an exploration-exploitation trade-off that is well understood when in each time period feedback is received only on the action that was selected in that period. However, in many practical settings, additional information may become available between decision epochs. We study the performance that one may achieve when leveraging such auxiliary information and the design of algorithms that effectively do so without prior knowledge of the information arrival process. Methodology/results: Our formulation considers a broad class of distributions that are informative about rewards from actions and allows auxiliary observations from these distributions to arrive according to an arbitrary and a priori unknown process. When it is known how to map auxiliary observations to reward estimates, we characterize the best achievable performance as a function of the information arrival process. In terms of achieving optimal performance, we establish that upper confidence bound and Thompson sampling algorithms possess natural robustness with respect to the information arrival process, which uncovers a novel property of these popular algorithms. When the mappings connecting auxiliary observations and rewards are a priori unknown, we characterize a necessary and sufficient condition under which auxiliary information allows performance improvement and devise an adaptive policy (termed 2UCBs) that guarantees near optimality. We use a data set from a large media site to analyze the value that may be captured by leveraging auxiliary observations in the design of content recommendations. Managerial implications: Our study highlights the importance of utilizing auxiliary information in the design of sequential experiments and characterizes how salient features of the auxiliary information stream impact performance. Our study also emphasizes the risk in processing auxiliary information using nonadaptive approaches that are predicated on correct interpretation of this information, as opposed to deploying flexible, adaptive methods.

Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Statistics - Machine Learning, Machine Learning (stat.ML), Machine Learning (cs.LG)

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    5
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
bronze