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UTL Repository
Research . 2021
Data sources: UTL Repository
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2021
Data sources: EconStor
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Current Account Targeting Hypothesis versus Twin Deficit Hypothesis: the EMU Experience of Portugal

Authors: Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos;

Current Account Targeting Hypothesis versus Twin Deficit Hypothesis: the EMU Experience of Portugal

Abstract

We study the relationship between the government budget balance and the current account balance for Portugal, using quarterly data from 1999 to 2019. On the one hand, the causality tests find a unidirectional relation running from the current account balance to the government budget balance. On the other hand, IV estimations show a bi-directional relationship between these variables, and the existence of a bilateral relationship between the structural components of both balances. Even so, the policy implication is that the use of fiscal policy to correct the external imbalance, especially in an economic crisis, is not substantial, due to the small size of the estimated impact. In addition, with an ARDL model, we find a negative long run relationship between the share of public consumption on GDP and the current account balance. As expected, the variation of real public consumption produces an adverse accumulated response on the current account balance. Finally, the investment rate negatively affects the cyclical component of the current account balance and contributes to the structural improvement of the budget balance.

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Country
Portugal
Keywords

causality, Portugal, ddc:330, budget balance, government consumption, twin deficits, ARDL, F32, VAR, current account targeting hypothesis, F41, C22, external balance, H62

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
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3
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