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Real Estate Economics
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC ND
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Article . 2022
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Article . 2022
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Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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Article . 2022
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Interpretable Machine Learning for Real Estate Market Analysis

Authors: Felix Lorenz; Jonas Willwersch; Marcelo Cajias; Franz Fuerst;

Interpretable Machine Learning for Real Estate Market Analysis

Abstract

AbstractMachine Learning (ML) excels at most predictive tasks but its complex nonparametric structure renders it less useful for inference and out‐of sample predictions. This article aims to elucidate and enhance the analytical capabilities of ML in real estate through Interpretable ML (IML). Specifically, we compare a hedonic ML approach to a set of model‐agnostic interpretation methods. Our results suggest that IML methods permit a peek into the black box of algorithmic decision making by showing the web of associative relationships between variables in greater resolution. In our empirical applications, we confirm that size and age are the most important rent drivers. Further analysis reveals that certain bundles of hedonic characteristics, such as large apartments in historic buildings with balconies located in affluent neighborhoods, attract higher rents than adding up the contributions of each hedonic characteristic. Building age is shown to exhibit a U‐shaped pattern in that both the youngest and oldest buildings attract the highest rents. Besides revealing valuable distance decay functions for spatial variables, IML methods are also able to visualise how the strength and interactions of hedonic characteristics change over time, which investors could use to determine the types of assets that perform best at any given stage of the real estate investment cycle.

Countries
Germany, United Kingdom
Keywords

Interpretable Machine Learning, Housing Markets, ddc:330, Microeconomic Hedonic Pricing, black box, 330 Wirtschaft, 38 Economics, Data Science, interpretable machine learning, Bioengineering, black box, hedonic modeling, interpretable machine learning, rental estimation, residential real estate, rental estimation, 35 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services, hedonic modeling, Networking and Information Technology R&D (NITRD), 3801 Applied Economics, Behavioral and Social Science, Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence, Networking and Information Technology R&D (NITRD), residential real estate, 3504 Commercial Services, Rental Markets

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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