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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Road Safety for Fleets of Vehicles

Authors: Georges Dionne; Denise Desjardins; Jean Francois Angers;

Road Safety for Fleets of Vehicles

Abstract

Road safety for fleets of vehicles has been neglected in the insurance literature, mainly because appropriate data and methodology were not available. This article makes a threefold contribution: 1) Produce statistics on current fleets’ road safety offences and accidents using a panel of 20 years of data on truck fleets; 2) relate fleets’ offences to accidents; and 3) identify and classify the riskiest fleets for insurance ratemaking based on past experience in managing road safety. Our main technical innovation to the insurance literature is in the estimation of fleets’ distributions of accidents. For each fleet size (or group of sizes), we estimate the parameters of the negative binomial (NB) distribution of the annual number of accidents according to the characteristics of the fleets, the years, and the number of driver (DRV) and carrier (CAR) road safety violations accumulated in the previous year. When the NB model does not accurately predict the mathematical expectation of the number of accidents of larger fleets, we proceed in two steps. First, we estimate the probability of having zero accidents in a year, and then estimate the negative binomial distribution using the estimated probability of having zero accidents, to weight the zeros of each fleet. To achieve our third objective, we construct risk classes for the vehicle fleets using the predicted accident probabilities obtained from the estimated models. Our results show a substantial heterogeneity between fleets in terms of road safety. This information should be very useful for optimal insurance pricing and better incentives for road safety.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
bronze