
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.3792168
Spanish Abstract: Este trabajo propone un sistema de reglas fiscales para Venezuela que permita alcanzar estabilizacion y sostenibilidad de las finanzas publicas, asi como fundamentar el diseno de reformas economicas orientadas al restablecimiento de los equilibrios macroeconomicos basicos, condicion necesaria para la recuperacion del crecimiento sostenido. Se parte de considerar el estado del arte en la materia de reglas fiscales, haciendo un balance de sus ventajas y desventajas, con especial enfasis en las economias que dependen de la explotacion y exportaciones de recursos naturales no renovables. Se formula un modelo de reglas fiscales, que posteriormente se simula para el caso de Venezuela. Los resultados obtenidos permiten inferir su factibilidad y conveniencia, partiendo del reconocimiento de que la implementacion de un sistema de reglas fiscales como el propuesto requiere de un periodo de transicion durante el cual se corrijan los fuertes desequilibrios macroeconomicos presentes y la crisis humanitaria que en la actualidad afecta al pais. English Abstract: The objective of the proposal of a system of fiscal rules for Venezuela is twofold: to achieve the stabilization and sustainability of public finances, and to provide foundations for policies aimed at restoring the country’s basic macroeconomic balances and a sustained growth path. Before presenting such system, we offer an overview of the current state of the subject on fiscal rules and – being Venezuela an oil country – focus on their main aspects and restrictions in natural resource economies. To evaluate the proposed system of fiscal rules, we calibrate and simulate a tailored model for the Venezuelan case and perform the estimations in the context of likely short and medium-term macroeconomic scenarios. The results of the exercise allow us to infer its feasibility and convenience if the fiscal rules proposed are implemented after a process of fiscal consolidation and restoration of basic macroeconomic equilibria.
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