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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2021
Data sources: EconStor
EconStor
Research . 2021
Data sources: EconStor
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Global Uncertainty

Authors: Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem;

Global Uncertainty

Abstract

We estimate a novel measure of global financial uncertainty (GFU) with a dynamic factor framework that jointly models global, regional, and country-specific factors. We quantify the impact of GFU shocks on global output with a VAR analysis that achieves set-identification via a combination of narrative, sign, ratio, and correlation restrictions. We find that the world output loss that materialized during the great recession would have been 13% lower in absence of GFU shocks. We also unveil the existence of a global finance uncertainty multiplier: the more global financial conditions deteriorate after GFU shocks, the larger the world output contraction is.

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Keywords

ddc:330, dynamic hierarchical factor model, world output loss, Global Financial Uncertainty, global finance uncertainty multiplier, structural VAR, C32, E32

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    8
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
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    impulse
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Found an issue? Give us feedback
citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
8
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
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