
handle: 10419/232482 , 10419/240342
We estimate a novel measure of global financial uncertainty (GFU) with a dynamic factor framework that jointly models global, regional, and country-specific factors. We quantify the impact of GFU shocks on global output with a VAR analysis that achieves set-identification via a combination of narrative, sign, ratio, and correlation restrictions. We find that the world output loss that materialized during the great recession would have been 13% lower in absence of GFU shocks. We also unveil the existence of a global finance uncertainty multiplier: the more global financial conditions deteriorate after GFU shocks, the larger the world output contraction is.
ddc:330, dynamic hierarchical factor model, world output loss, Global Financial Uncertainty, global finance uncertainty multiplier, structural VAR, C32, E32
ddc:330, dynamic hierarchical factor model, world output loss, Global Financial Uncertainty, global finance uncertainty multiplier, structural VAR, C32, E32
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