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The Macroeconomic Cost of College Dropouts

Authors: Vardishvili, Oliko;

The Macroeconomic Cost of College Dropouts

Abstract

More than 40% of US college students drop out without gaining a degree. This paper investigates whether dropouts are largely due to academic ability or financial constraints. I provide empirical evidence that the probability of dropout is strongly associated with both ability and finances–even after controlling for other factors. I build a quantitative general equilibrium overlapping generations model, where individuals face incomplete information on their academic ability and uncertainty about the generosity of financial aid. The model simulations show that uncertainty regarding ability is responsible for 20% of the observed dropout rates, while uncertainty regarding financial aid explains up to 53%. Pursuing a policy that eliminates uncertainty about the college aid would increase the social welfare by as much as 2.3%, benefiting both college graduates and non-college graduates. Such a policy is largely self-financing due to endogenous improvements in skill allocation and associated growth in GDP.

Related Organizations
Keywords

College dropouts, Financial Constraints, Financial Aid, Skill Premium, Education

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Average
Average
Average
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