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Article
License: CC BY
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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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https://dx.doi.org/10.48350/15...
Other literature type . 2024
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EconStor
Research . 2020
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EconStor
Research . 2020
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EconStor
Research . 2020
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Optimally Controlling an Epidemic

Authors: Gonzalez-Eiras, Martín; Niepelt, Dirk;

Optimally Controlling an Epidemic

Abstract

We propose a exible model of infectious dynamics with a single endogenous state variable and economic choices. We characterize equilibrium, optimal outcomes, static and dynamic externalities, and prove the following: (i) A lockdown generically is followed by policies to stimulate activity. (ii) Re-infection risk lowers the activity level chosen by the government early on and, for small static externalities, implies too cautious equilibrium steady-state activity. (iii) When a cure arrives deterministically, optimal policy is discontinous, featuring a light/strict lockdown when the arrival date exceeds/falls short of a specific value. Calibrated to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the baseline model and a battery of robustness checks and extensions imply (iv) lockdowns for 3-4 months, with activity reductions by 25-40 percent, and (v) substantial welfare gains from optimal policy unless the government lacks instruments to stimulate activity after a lockdown.

Country
Switzerland
Keywords

SI model, I18, ddc:330, forced opening, Epidemic, COVID-19, epidemic, 330 Economics, lockdown, SIS model, SIR model, Covid-19, logistic model

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
hybrid