AbstractThis article assesses the consequences of EU enlargement for east–west migration. It is argued that expectations on future economic, social and political variables are crucial for immediate immigration. Specifically, if EU membership is refused, fear of future restrictions on immigration will lead to increased current migration. Moreover, EU accession is likely to reduce income gaps between the accession countries and the current Member States reducing the incentives to emigrate. We conclude that granting EU accession to eastern European countries will not necessarily induce massive east–west migration flows.