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Tail Risk and Expectations

Authors: Yeow Hwee Chua; Zu Yao Hong;

Tail Risk and Expectations

Abstract

We study changes in expectations by incorporating tail risk in a Bayesian learning framework with information frictions. Using a signal extraction problem, we find that economic agents behave differently in the face of tail risk. First, under tail risk, uncertainty shocks lead to a decrease in expectations, which implies more pessimistic forecasts. In comparison, in the absence of tail risks, uncertainty shocks do not influence expectations. Second, we show that individuals overreact under tail risk, that is, individuals are excessively optimistic and pessimistic as compared to a Bayesian learning framework without tail risk. Third, the magnitude of overreaction under tail risk depends on the level of uncertainty in the economy. To validate these theoretical findings, we use quantile regressions to estimate the GDP growth distribution and its measure of tail risk. By comparing the state of the economy in tail risk and non-tail risk episodes, we find that uncertainty shocks lead to a larger fall in sentiments when the economy exhibits tail risk. In addition, using an event study approach, we show that there is more overreaction under tail risk episodes. Also, consistent with the theoretical findings, overreaction is larger in periods of higher uncertainty. Our findings seek to shed light on factors driving overreaction in expectations, and to highlight the importance of uncertainty shocks in propagating macroeconomic stability.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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