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Journal of European Economy
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Journal of European Economy
Article
License: CC BY
Data sources: UnpayWall
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
ResearchGate Data
Preprint . 2020
Data sources: Datacite
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Hyperinflation in the Euro Area?

Authors: Gerhard LECHNER;

Hyperinflation in the Euro Area?

Abstract

In the non-academic sector in Germany, it is often advocated that the expansion of the ECB’s money supply would inevitably lead to high inflation or even hyperinflation. This paper explores the question of whether inflation could arise in the euro zone, if so how high it would be and whether it would be hyperinflation. The work is based on theoretical considerations on the subject of hyperinflation and inflation and outlines a possible scenario in which the latter could actually become a reality. The thesis is that the greatest danger to the euro zone would come if Italy and / or Spain chose to leave the Union. Covid-19 has increased the risk of divergent economic developments in different countries in the euro zone. Italy and Spain have to reckon with a dramatic increase in public debt, weak growth and deteriorating conditions on the labour market. The main risk is unlikely to be that the euro zone will not help Italy or Spain, but the people in these countries may feel that aid is not enough, thus making an exit a serious option. If these countries left the Eurozone, then they would likely opt for an orderly exit. That means Italy would join EMS II after a one-time devaluation and not leave the EU. If the exit was not negotiated, then a disorderly parting would commence, which is the scenario with a high risk of hyperinflation.

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    popularity
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
gold