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Journal of Finance and Data Science
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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Journal of Finance and Data Science
Article
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Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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Pairwise Acquisition Prediction with SHAP Value Interpretation

Authors: Katsuya Futagami; Yusuke Fukazawa; Nakul Kapoor; Tomomi Kito;

Pairwise Acquisition Prediction with SHAP Value Interpretation

Abstract

Predicting future pairs of the acquirer and acquiree companies is important for acquisition or investment strategy. This prediction is a challenging problem due to the following requirements: to incorporate various non-financial factors and to address the lack of negative samples. Concerning the former, we proposed including a network feature that represented the importance of an acquirer and an acquiree in the investment and category networks, as well as a company relation feature associated with their similarity and closeness. Considering the latter requirement, as negative examples, we set the pairs of acquirers and acquirees with the features that were similar to those of positive examples. This allowed learning minor differences between the companies selected for acquisition and the candidate ones. We evaluated our proposed prediction model using 2000–2018 acquisition logs collected from CrunchBase. Based on the analysis of the high SHapley additive explanation (SHAP) value features, we found that the newly considered network and company relation features had high significance (10 out of 22 top key features). We also clarified how these novel features contributed to the prediction of acquisition occurrence by interpreting the SHAP value.

Country
Finland
Related Organizations
Keywords

SHAP value interpretation, Electronic computers. Computer science, Acquisition prediction, HG1-9999, Machine learning, QA75.5-76.95, CrunchBase, Finance

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    selected citations
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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    121
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
121
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
gold