
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.3673172
Spanish Abstract: La organizacion FARC-EP fue reconocida, en la academia y en los medios de comunicacion, como la guerrilla mas longeva y grande en Latinoamerica. Este trabajo explora la decision de sus integrantes a desmovilizarse o permanecer en esta, antes del Acuerdo Final para la Paz. El marco teorico construido alrededor del problema de decision y los datos de desmovilizaciones me permiten concluir que las motivaciones de los integrantes de las FARC-EP iban mas alla del factor mas estudiado y divulgado: la busqueda de rentas. A partir de la literatura, propongo que la organizacion ofrecio incentivos pecuniarios, bienes basicos, y no pecuniarios, satisfaccion militar, politica y con la vida en la organizacion, e implemento coercion, para incentivar la permanencia; mientras que el gobierno genero presion militar, creo ofertas para la desmovilizacion y promovio la influencia de actores externos para incentivar la desmovilizacion. Los datos revelan que el tipo de desmovilizacion (grupal o individual) y los factores motivantes estan asociados con variables contextuales, determinadas por la organizacion, asi como caracteristicas sociodemograficas de los integrantes. En el analisis de datos agregados desde 1994, encuentro que en 2008 se reporta el porcentaje desmovilizaciones mas alto, lo cual coincide con la mayor crisis de la organizacion. A su vez, sugiero la existencia de una relacion negativa entre las variables proxy de beneficios pecuniarios e incentivos militares con el porcentaje de desmovilizados, y una relacion positiva con las variables proxy de presion del Estado. En el analisis de datos micro desde 2008, encuentro que, por ejemplo, en el periodo de negociaciones las desmovilizaciones grupales fueron menos probables y las acciones externas a la organizacion, como la presion militar y los programas de desmovilizacion, perdieron importancia como motivantes mientras que factores internos, como la coercion y la desmoralizacion militar, cobraron relevancia. English Abstract: The FARC-EP was recognized, by the academy and the media, as the oldest and largest guerrilla in Latin America. This work investigates how the FARC-EP members’ made the decision to demobilize or remain in the group, prior to the Final Peace Agreement. Through a theoretical framework and empirical data, I find that the FARC-EP members’ motivations went beyond the criminal rent-seekers theory. Based on the literature, I propose that the organization encouraged its members’ permanence through pecuniary and non-pecuniary incentives, basic goods, military, political and life satisfaction, and coercion; while the government generated military pressure, created offers for demobilization and promoted the influence of external actors. The data revealed that the type of demobilization (group or individual) and the motivating factors are associated with contextual variables and the sociodemographic characteristics of the members. The analysis of aggregated data shows that the peak of the demobilization percentage occurred in 2008, during the greatest crisis in the organization. Moreover, I suggest the existence of a negative relationship between the proxy variables of pecuniary benefits and military incentives with the percentage of demobilized members. Meanwhile, I find a positive relationship between the proxy variables of State pressure and the demobilization percentage. Additionally, in microdata, I find that in negotiations period the group demobilizations were less likely, and external factors, as military pressure and demobilization programs, lost importance; whereas internal factors, such as coercion and military demoralization, gained relevance.
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 0 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Average | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
