
We analyze the risk-return trade-off in the US Treasury market using a term structure model that features volatility-in-mean effects of multiple sources, and yet preserves tractable bond prices. We find a strong positive relation between risks and risk premia over the 1966-2018 period. While interest-rate risk is the main driver of such positive relation, macro risk plays a non-trivial role, and its omission leads to unstable estimates of the trade-off. Notably, macro risk contributes to the surge and consequent fall of risk premia around the 1980s, whereas it moves inversely with risk premia during the recent ‘low yield’ period.
term structure models, bond risk premium, macro risk, Treasury market, risk-return trade-off, Interest rates, asset pricing, etc. (stochastic models)
term structure models, bond risk premium, macro risk, Treasury market, risk-return trade-off, Interest rates, asset pricing, etc. (stochastic models)
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