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Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
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Apollo
Article . 2023
License: CC BY
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Article . 2024
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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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Risks and Risk Premia in the US Treasury Market

Risks and risk premia in the US Treasury market
Authors: Li, J; Sarno, L; Zinna, G;

Risks and Risk Premia in the US Treasury Market

Abstract

We analyze the risk-return trade-off in the US Treasury market using a term structure model that features volatility-in-mean effects of multiple sources, and yet preserves tractable bond prices. We find a strong positive relation between risks and risk premia over the 1966-2018 period. While interest-rate risk is the main driver of such positive relation, macro risk plays a non-trivial role, and its omission leads to unstable estimates of the trade-off. Notably, macro risk contributes to the surge and consequent fall of risk premia around the 1980s, whereas it moves inversely with risk premia during the recent ‘low yield’ period.

Country
United Kingdom
Related Organizations
Keywords

term structure models, bond risk premium, macro risk, Treasury market, risk-return trade-off, Interest rates, asset pricing, etc. (stochastic models)

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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
hybrid