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Journal of Applied Econometrics
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2020
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
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The Macroeconomy as a Random Forest

Authors: Philippe Goulet Coulombe;

The Macroeconomy as a Random Forest

Abstract

SummaryI develop the macroeconomic random forest (MRF), an algorithm adapting the canonical machine learning (ML) tool, to flexibly model evolving parameters in a linear macro equation. Its main output, generalized time‐varying parameters (GTVPs), is a versatile device nesting many popular nonlinearities (threshold/switching, smooth transition, and structural breaks/change) and allowing for sophisticated new ones. The approach delivers clear forecasting gains over numerous alternatives, predicts the 2008 drastic rise in unemployment, and performs well for inflation. Unlike most ML‐based methods, MRF is directly interpretable—via its GTVPs. For instance, the successful unemployment forecast is due to the influence of forward‐looking variables (e.g., term spreads and housing starts) nearly doubling before every recession. Interestingly, the Phillips curve has indeed flattened, and its might is highly cyclical.

Keywords

FOS: Economics and business, FOS: Computer and information sciences, Statistics - Machine Learning, Econometrics (econ.EM), Machine Learning (stat.ML), Economics - Econometrics

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
34
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
bronze