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Apollo
Research . 2019
Data sources: Apollo
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Apollo
Research . 2019
Data sources: Apollo
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Apollo
Research . 2019
Data sources: Apollo
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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Exchange Rate Risk and Business Cycles

Authors: Lloyd, S. P.; Marin, E. A.;

Exchange Rate Risk and Business Cycles

Abstract

We show that currencies with a steeper yield curve tend to depreciate at business cycle horizons, in violation of uncovered interest parity (UIP), but the yield curve adds no explanatory power over and above interest differentials in explaining the exchange rate at longer horizons. We argue that exchange rate risk premia reallocate returns intertemporally to investors who value them relatively highly, reflecting transitory innovations to their stochastic discount factor consistent with business cycle risk. Using holding period returns, we identify a tent-shape relationship, across horizons, between dollar-bond excess returns for long maturity bonds and the relative slope. In addition, we find that short-horizon UIP deviations switch sign following yield curve inversions, consistent with the interpretation of inversions as indicators of changes in growth and inflation expectations. We show that accounting for liquidity yields does not alter our results, but rather contributes to explaining cross-sectional differences across currencies, consistent with permanent innovations to agents' stochastic discount factor.

Country
United Kingdom
Related Organizations
Keywords

Risk premia, Exchange rates, Business-cycle risk, Stochastic discount factor, Uncovered interest parity, Yield curves

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    4
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Average
Average
Average
Green
bronze