
In this paper, we empirically look at the effects of uncertainty on risk measures for exchange rates, by focusing on two recent specific periods: the Brexit and the outbreak of the Covid-19. Based on a Fama regression extended with uncertainty measures, we forecast exchange rates in the short run through a quantile regression approach. By fitting a Skewed-Student distribution to the quantile forecasts, we put forward measures of risks for appreciation and depreciation of the expected exchange rates. We point out two interesting results. First, we show that the increase in Brexit-related uncertainty is strongly associated with higher future depreciation risks of the British Pound vs. the Euro, as a mistrust towards the British economy. Second, we find that the Covid-related uncertainty is perceived as a global risk, leading to a flight-to-safety move toward the US Dollar and associated high depreciation risks for emerging currencies.
Article
Article
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 6 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
