Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
addClaim

Malinvestment and Crisis-Emergent Asset Comovement: The Problem of Latent Correlation

Authors: Messaoud Chibane; Amadeus Gabriel; Gabriel Giménez Roche;

Malinvestment and Crisis-Emergent Asset Comovement: The Problem of Latent Correlation

Abstract

The common fall of asset prices during crises and recessions implies that asset correlation is strong during these events, while not necessarily showing up during the boom phase of the business cycle. Using insights from the malinvestment cycle theory, we show that this shift in correlation is not just triggered by a crash-related shock. It is also the result of risk build-up induced by money-boosted malinvestment taking place during the boom. We provide a model where the probability of a crash increases with bank credit expansion during the growth phase, which hints at a “latent” build-up of asset correlation. Credit expansion feeds asset prices, but also widens a gap between future-oriented cash inflows and present-oriented cash outflows. As new credit widens this gap, asset valuation becomes more funding-based rather than cash flow-based. Therefore, default risk, and hence the probability of a crash, increases with credit expansion. A change in credit expansion cuts the asset price rise short and reveals the malinvestments in the economy. This process implies a “latent” build-up of asset correlation during the boom phase that becomes “effective” with the crash. Practitioners and policy-makers would thus benefit from adopting the insights of the malinvestment cycle theory to complement their ad hoc empirical findings and estimations.

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    0
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Upload OA version
Are you the author of this publication? Upload your Open Access version to Zenodo!
It’s fast and easy, just two clicks!