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Journal of Applied Econometrics
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Inferring Financial Bubbles from Option Data

Authors: Robert A. Jarrow; Simon S. Kwok;

Inferring Financial Bubbles from Option Data

Abstract

SummaryFinancial bubbles arise when the underlying asset's market price deviates from its fundamental value. Unlike other bubble tests that use time series data and assume a reduced‐form price process, we infer the existence of bubbles nonparametrically using option price data. Under no‐arbitrage and acknowledging data constraints, we can partially identify asset price bubbles using a cross section of European option prices. In the empirical analysis, we obtain interval estimates of price bubbles embedded in the S&P 500 Index. The estimated index bubbles are then used to construct profitable momentum trading strategies that consistently outperform a buy‐and‐hold trading strategy.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
17
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
bronze