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La efectividad de los programas del FMI en la última década (The Effectiveness of IMF Programs in the Last Decade)

Authors: Sonsoles Gallego Herrero; Pilar L´Hotellerie-Fallois; Xavier Serra;

La efectividad de los programas del FMI en la última década (The Effectiveness of IMF Programs in the Last Decade)

Abstract

Spanish abstract En los programas de prestamo del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI o Fondo) a paises miembros con dificultades de desequilibrio exterior, el acceso a la financiacion queda condicionado al cumplimiento de una serie de medidas y reformas, contenidas en un programa economico, que el pais prestatario se compromete a llevar a cabo. El FMI revisa el diseno y la condicionalidad de estos programas de manera periodica. Una de las principales aportaciones de la ultima revision, finalizada en 2019 y referida al periodo 2011-2017, ha sido una propuesta para medir la efectividad de los programas en terminos del cumplimiento del objetivo de corregir los desequilibrios de los paises prestatarios, ejercicio que arroja unos resultados modestos. Por otra parte, la revision ha puesto de manifiesto el exceso de optimismo de las proyecciones macroeconomicas utilizadas en los programas y la sobreestimacion de los efectos positivos de las reformas estructurales, factores que pueden restar precision y efectividad a las medidas implementadas. Otras cuestiones abiertas en cuanto al diseno y la condicionalidad de los programas del FMI se refieren a la relacion entre la condicionalidad y el estigma que genera la apelacion a la financiacion del Fondo, al impacto social y la estrategia de comunicacion de las politicas de ajuste que facilite su aceptacion social, a la duracion de los programas, al papel de las reestructuraciones de deuda y a la idoneidad de las recomendaciones de politica economica, mas alla del cumplimiento escrupuloso de los procedimientos asociados a la condicionalidad. English abstract In IMF lending to countries in balance of payments difficulties, access to Fund resources is conditional to complying with series of measures and reforms contained in an economic program. The IMF periodically revises the design and conditionality of economic programs. One of the key findings of the latest Review of Conditionality concluded in 2019, comprising programs between 2011 and 2017, is a proposal to measure the effectiveness of IMF programs in terms of their objective of correcting borrowing countries imbalances. This exercise shows modest results. In addition, the review has revealed the excessive optimism of macroeconomic projections used in programs, together with an overestimation of the positive effects of structural reforms. These factors may jeopardize the effectiveness of economic programs. There remain open questions when revising the design and conditionality of IMF programs. Among them, the links between conditionality and stigma, the social impact and communication strategy of adjustment policies so that they can be more socially acceptable, the duration of IMF programs, the role of debt restructurings, and the adequacy of policy recommendations, beyond the strict compliance with conditionality procedures. Note Downloadable document is in Spanish

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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