
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.3561250
Spanish Abstract: El presente documento muestra la aplicacion de una metodologia para estimar el precio cuenta de eficiencia de la divisa bajo un tipo de cambio fijo; se presenta como estudio de caso una aplicacion a la economia boliviana, para el periodo 2011-2016. Un regimen del tipo de cambio fijo implica, de manera general, que el pais debe tener un stock de reservas internacionales suficiente para mantenerlo en el corto plazo; en el mediano y largo plazo los ajustes en la oferta y demanda de divisas -equilibrio de la cuenta corriente- se realiza via el tipo de cambio real -precios relativos de los bienes transables y los no transables-, incentivos (ej. subsidios a las exportaciones) y/o desincentivos (ej. aranceles), dado el tipo de cambio nominal fijo. La razon precio cuenta de la divisa bajo estas consideraciones se ve afectada no solo por las elasticidades respectivas o las ponderaciones medias de las importaciones y exportaciones e incentivos y desincentivos respectivos, sino tambien por la relacion del Indice de tipo de cambio real de equilibrio y el Indice del tipo de cambio real vigente (ITCRE/ITCRV). Los resultados muestran que para el caso boliviano existe un des-alineamiento entre la tasa de cambio real y la tasa de cambio real de equilibrio de largo plazo y que la razon precio cuenta de la divisa para el periodo 2011-2016 con el metodo de ponderaciones medias de 1,19 y con el metodo de elasticidades de 1,19. English Abstract: This document shows the application of a methodology to estimate the currency efficiency account price under a fixed exchange rate, an application to the Bolivian economy is presented as a case study, for the period 2011-2016. A fixed exchange rate system generally implies that the local country should maintain a sufficient level of international reserves in the short term to support the fixed rate. In the medium and long term the adjustments in currency supply and demand -current account equilibrium- are done via the real exchange rate -relative price of tradable and non-tradable goodsincentives (e.g. subsidies on exports) and disincentives (e.g. taxes), given a fixed nominal exchange rate. Under this considerations, the shadow price of the currency is affected not only by the corresponding elasticities, the average weight of imports and exports and related economic incentives but also by the relation between the real exchange rate and the active real exchange rate index. The results show that for the Bolivian economy there is a misalignment between the real exchange rate and the long term exchange rate and that the currency shadow price for the period 2011-2016 equals to 1.19 using the average weight method and 1.19 using the elasticities method.
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