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Dissecting Trade and Business Cycle Co-movement

Authors: Paul Ilhak Ko;

Dissecting Trade and Business Cycle Co-movement

Abstract

International business cycles are synchronized across developed economies. To understand this empirical phenomenon, I develop a multi-country real business cycle model with trade that embeds a comprehensive set of shocks. I match the data exactly with the endogenous outcomes of the model so that shocks fully account for the data, including GDP and bilateral trade shares. Quantifying the model to a panel of G7 countries and the rest of the world during 1992–2014, I find that shocks to bilateral trade linkages are largely responsible for the business cycle synchronization. In contrast, country-specific correlated shocks play relatively minor roles. Additionally, I find that trade-linkage shocks help to resolve the trade co-movement puzzle, by predicting a much stronger link between trade and cross-country GDP correlations.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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Average
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