White Elephants on Quicksand: Low Oil Prices and High Geopolitical Risk

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Other literature type 01 Jan 2020 United Kingdom English Publisher:Elsevier BVJournal:SSRN Electronic Journal (eissn: 1556-5068,

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Authors: Hany Abdel‐Latif; Mahmoud El‐Gamal;

doi: 10.2139/ssrn.3517455 , 10.1111/sjpe.12279

White Elephants on Quicksand: Low Oil Prices and High Geopolitical Risk

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Abstract

AbstractWe investigate the effects of low oil prices and heightened geopolitical risks on economic growth and investment in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. We find that negative shocks to oil prices and positive shocks to geopolitical risk have adverse effects on GDP and investment. Moreover, we find that the impact of investment on GDP in MENA countries is muted when oil prices are low and/or geopolitical risk level is high. These findings cast doubts on the prospects of mega‐project economic transformation plans as envisioned in 2030 visions for several MENA countries.

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