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International Journal of Forecasting
Article . 2022
License: taverne
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Queen's University Research Portal
Article . 2020
License: CC BY NC ND
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International Journal of Forecasting
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
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Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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Forecasting Realized Volatility of Agricultural Commodities

Authors: Degiannakis, Stavros; Filis, George; Klein, Tony; Walther, Thomas;

Forecasting Realized Volatility of Agricultural Commodities

Abstract

We forecast the realized and median realized volatility of agricultural commodities using\ud variants of the Heterogeneous AutoRegressive (HAR) model. We obtain tick-by-tick data\ud for five widely traded agricultural commodities (Corn, Rough Rice, Soybeans, Sugar,\ud and Wheat) from the CME/ICE. Real out-of-sample forecasts are produced for 1- up\ud to 66-days ahead. Our in-sample analysis shows that the variants of the HAR model\ud which decompose volatility measures into their continuous path and jump components and\ud incorporate leverage effects offer better fitting in the predictive regressions. However, we\ud convincingly demonstrate that such HAR extensions do not offer any superior predictive\ud ability in the out-of-sample results, since none of these extensions produce significantly\ud better forecasts compared to the simple HAR model. Our results remain robust even when\ud we evaluate them in a Value-at-Risk framework. Thus, there is no benefit by adding more\ud complexity, related to volatility decomposition or relative transformations of volatility, in\ud the forecasting models.

Countries
United Kingdom, Netherlands
Keywords

330, Agricultural commodities, Taverne, Median realized volatility, Forecast, B Journal, Business and International Management, Realized volatility, Heterogeneous autoregressive model

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
47
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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