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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2019
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
Data sources: Datacite
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An Instantaneous Market Volatility Estimation

Authors: Danyliv, Oleh; Bland, Bruce;

An Instantaneous Market Volatility Estimation

Abstract

Working on different aspects of algorithmic trading we empirically discovered a new market invariant. It links together the volatility of the instrument with its traded volume, the average spread and the volume in the order book. The invariant has been tested on different markets and different asset classes. In all cases we did not find significant violation of the invariant. The formula for the invariant was used for the volatility estimation, which we called the instantaneous volatility. Quantitative comparison showed that it reproduces realised volatility better than one-day-ahead GARCH(1,1) prediction. Because of the short-term prediction nature, the instantaneous volatility could be used by algo developers, volatility traders and other market professionals.

16 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables

Keywords

FOS: Economics and business, Quantitative Finance - Trading and Market Microstructure, 91G70, Trading and Market Microstructure (q-fin.TR)

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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Average
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