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Applied Mathematics and Computation
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Expected Shortfall Computation with Multiple Control Variates

Expected shortfall computation with multiple control variates
Authors: Ortiz Gracia, Luis;

Expected Shortfall Computation with Multiple Control Variates

Abstract

In this work we derive an exact formula to calculate the Expected Shortfall (ES) value for the one-factor delta-gamma approach which, to the best of our knowledge, was still missing in the literature. We then use the one-factor delta-gamma as a control variate to estimate the ES of the multi-factor delta-gamma approach. A one-factor delta-gamma approximation is used for each risk factor appearing in the problem. Since the expected values of control variates are computed by means of an exact formula, the additional effort of computation with respect to the naive estimator of the multi-factor delta-gamma can be neglected. With this method, we achieve a considerable reduction of the variance. We have established a theorem to prove that the variance is further reduced when we use all the risk factors instead of just some of them. We show that one of the main potential applications takes place in the insurance industry regulation within the Swiss solvency test framework. We perform a model risk analysis and illustrate these results with numerical experiments.

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Spain
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Keywords

Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics, Risk, Numerical methods (including Monte Carlo methods), Aritmètica computacional, Portfolio management, Monte Carlo methods, Swiss solvency test, market risk, Computer arithmetic, control variates, Portfolio theory, Risc (Economia), expected shortfall, exact formula, Anàlisi factorial, Factor analysis, nonlinear portfolio, Gestió de cartera, Statistical methods; risk measures, delta-gamma approximation

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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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