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Pacific-Basin Finance Journal
Article . 2004 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3...
Article . 2002 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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The Real-Time Predictability of the Size and Value Premium in Japan

Authors: Bauer, R.M.M.J.; Derwall, J.M.M.; Molenaar, R.;

The Real-Time Predictability of the Size and Value Premium in Japan

Abstract

In this paper, we examine whether the short-term variation in the size and value premium in the Japanese stock market is sufficiently predictable to be exploited by a tactical timing strategy. In the spirit of Pesaran and Timmermann (1995), we employ a dynamic modeling approach in which we explicitly allow for permutations among the determinants in order to mitigate typical data-snooping biases. Using a base set of candidate regressors, we first perform an in-sample estimation of all economically sensible models in a rolling window framework. Subsequently, we generate out-of-sample forecasts for all models and evaluate the performance in a model training period. Model selection is based on three well-known selection criteria: hit ratio (% correct sign), the mean return of the strategy and the realized information ratio. We then implement our investment strategy in a second stage out-of-sample period: the trading period. The empirical results confirm sufficient predictability under low levels of transactions costs. Under higher transaction costs scenarios we find it difficult to obtain incremental benefits from style rotation strategies. Moreover, the results are entangled with the choice of forecast horizon and model selection procedure.

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
10
Average
Average
Average
bronze