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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2019
Data sources: EconStor
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Cognitive Biases and Consumer Sentiment

Authors: Kole, Erik; Noordegraaf-Eelens, Liesbeth; Vringer, Bas;

Cognitive Biases and Consumer Sentiment

Abstract

We investigate whether two heuristics, the peak-end rule and herding, lead to cognitive biases in the index of consumer sentiment published by the University of Michigan. Both affect respondents' assessment of changes in their financial position over the past year. Consistent with the peak-end rule, respondents rely more on extreme detrimental monthly changes during the year than to changes over the whole year. We rule out that these extremes proxy for risk. The evidence for irrational herding consists in a too strong relationship from expectations about the future of respondents interviewed in a first round to assessments of the past by respondents interviewed in a second round. Both results show that cognitive biases can be found in a key macro variable and outside more controlled environments. They also indicate that the behavioral component of the sentiment index may offer another explanation for its relevance, next to news or animal spirits.

Keywords

E71, herding, ddc:330, cognitive biases, peak-end rule, Consumer sentiment, G41, E32

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
bronze