
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.3361496
handle: 10419/208291
We estimate the natural rate of interest for the US and the euro area in a semi-structural model comprising a Taylor rule. Our estimates feature key elements of Laubach and Williams (2003), but are more consistent with using conventional policy rules: we model inflation to be stationary, with the output gap pinning down deviations of inflation from its objective (rather than relative to a random walk). We relax some constraints on the correlation of latent factor shocks to make the original unobserved-components framework more amenable to structural interpretation and to reduce filtering uncertainty. We show that resulting natural rate metrics are more consistent with estimates from structural models.
Taylor Rule, ddc:330, Bayesian Estimation, Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition, Natural Rate of Interest, Equilibrium Real Rate, Unobserved Components, E52, C11, E32, E43
Taylor Rule, ddc:330, Bayesian Estimation, Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition, Natural Rate of Interest, Equilibrium Real Rate, Unobserved Components, E52, C11, E32, E43
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