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Research . 2018
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Business Cycle Narratives

Authors: Leif Anders Thorsrud; Leif Anders Thorsrud; Vegard H. Larsen;

Business Cycle Narratives

Abstract

Research about narratives’ role in economics is scarce, while real word experience and research in other sciences suggest they matter a lot. This article proposes a view and methodology for quantifying the epidemiology of media narratives relevant to business cycles in the US, Japan, and Europe. We do so by first constructing quantitative measures of narratives based on the news topics the media writes about. We then estimate daily business cycle indexes using this type of data, derive virality indexes capturing the extent to which narratives relevant for business cycles go viral, and finally use so called “Graphical Granger causality” modeling to cast light on cross-country spillovers and whether or not narratives carry news or noise. Our results highlight the informativeness of narratives for describing economic fluctuations, have a clear practical relevance for high-frequency business cycle monitoring, and suggest that narratives capture more than the market’s animal spirits.

Country
Norway
Related Organizations
Keywords

VDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Økonomi: 210::Samfunnsøkonomi: 212, dynamic factor model (DFM), E71, narratives, dynamic factor model, C55, E32, N10, Dynamic Factor Model (DFM), latent dirichlet allocation (LDA), ddc:330, Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), latent dirichlet allocation, Business cycles, JEL: E32, JEL: C55, business cycles, JEL: E71, JEL: N10

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    12
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
12
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
bronze