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Regression Discontinuity Threshold Optimization

Authors: Ioana Marinescu; Sofia Triantafillou; Konrad Kording;

Regression Discontinuity Threshold Optimization

Abstract

Treatments often come with thresholds, e.g. we are given statins if our cholesterol is above a certain threshold. But which statin administration threshold maximizes our quality of life adjusted years? More generally, which threshold would optimize the average expected outcome? Regression discontinuity approaches are used to measure the local average treatment effect (LATE) and more recently also the Marginal Threshold Treatment Effect (MTTE), which shows how marginal changes in the threshold can affect the LATE. We extend this idea to define the problem of optimizing a policy threshold, i.e. selecting a threshold that optimizes the cumulative effect of the treatment on the treated. We present an estimator of the optimal threshold based on a constrained optimization framework. We show how to use machine learning (Gaussian process regression) for non-linear estimation. We also extend the estimation to a conservative threshold that is unlikely to produce harm, and we show how to include policy cost constraints. We apply these results to estimate an optimal tip-maximizing threshold for tip suggestions in taxi cabs Haggag (2014).

Keywords

Cholesterol, Science, Q, R, Quality of Life, Medicine, Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors, Research Article

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    3
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Average
Average
Average
Green
gold