Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
addClaim

Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in India: Evidence from Causality, Cointegration and Toda–Yamamoto Wald Test

Authors: Vijay Kumar;

Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in India: Evidence from Causality, Cointegration and Toda–Yamamoto Wald Test

Abstract

The purpose of this research study is to shed light on the causal relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in India. This study analyzes Export-led growth (ELG) and Import-led growth (ILG) hypothesis in India. The author does so by analyzing the yearly data of Export, Import and Gross domestic product of India between 1980 and 2016. The author employed augmented Dickey-Fuller method and Phillip-Perron method to transform the all the data series into a stationary form. The author finds that all three variables i.e. Export, Import and Gross domestic product are highly positively correlated to each other. The result of Johansen co-integration test indicates cointegration and long-haul relationship among the variables. The result of the Granger causality and Toda-Yamamoto causality test shows unidirectional causal relationship between export and economic growth; the one-way causation exists between import and economic growth while economic growth causes export and import in India. The result of the impulse response function indicates that a change in the GDP is due to its own shocks whereas the impact of export shows certain effect on GDP. The analysis of the variance decomposition demonstrated that only 28.25% fluctuations in the GDP were explained due to its own shocks. Thus the outcome of the study indicates importance of export and import for economic growth is significance and foreign trade is heavily relied on economic growth of the country.

Related Organizations
  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    2
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
Upload OA version
Are you the author of this publication? Upload your Open Access version to Zenodo!
It’s fast and easy, just two clicks!