The Big Bang: Stock Market Capitalization in the Long Run
Copyright policy )The Big Bang: Stock Market Capitalization in the Long Run
We study trends and drivers of long-run stock market growth in 17 advanced economies. Between 1870 and the 1980s, stock market capitalization grew in line with GDP. But over subsequent decades, an unprecedented expansion saw market cap to GDP ratios triple and remain persistently high. While most historical stock market growth was driven by issuances, this recent expansion was fueled by rising equity prices. We show that the key driver of this structural break was a profit shift towards listed firms, with listed firm profit shares in both GDP and capital income doubling to reach their highest levels in 146 years.
This work was supported by the German Federal Research Ministry (BMBF) grant number 01UF1505.
Supplemental material file: online appendix
Saving and Capital Investment, risk premiums, equity issuance, financial development, or Comparative, Corporate profits, N20, Stock market capitalization, E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Equity issuance, N20 - General, G10, Wealth-to-income ratios, equity bubbles, N10 - General, N10, ddc:330, G20 - General, financial wealth, O16 - Financial Markets, O16, Long-run trends, International, G10 - General, equity valuations, E44, G20, Corporate Finance and Governance
Saving and Capital Investment, risk premiums, equity issuance, financial development, or Comparative, Corporate profits, N20, Stock market capitalization, E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Equity issuance, N20 - General, G10, Wealth-to-income ratios, equity bubbles, N10 - General, N10, ddc:330, G20 - General, financial wealth, O16 - Financial Markets, O16, Long-run trends, International, G10 - General, equity valuations, E44, G20, Corporate Finance and Governance
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